The jury's still out on home advantage.
Eighteen matches played in the tournament so far means we're at the halfway point of the group stage. It's gone scarily quickly, I know, and there have been plenty of moments of note. One that has piqued my interest has been the effect of crowds in this tournament, or lack thereof.
Eighteen matches played in the tournament so far means we're at the halfway point of the group stage. It's gone scarily quickly, I know, and there have been plenty of moments of note. One that has piqued my interest has been the effect of crowds in this tournament, or lack thereof. For many reasons, EURO 2020 is bizarre, a tournament I'm sure future generations will look back on with a lot of intrigue. Not only has the competition been delayed for a year, meaning we're all ignoring the fact this is taking place in 2021 to save UEFA's marketing budget. But this is the first tournament in its 60-year history that has taken place across the continent. You add the ongoing effects of coronavirus, some stadiums half full, some a quarter, and even one up to maximum capacity. It makes you wonder the impact a partisan crowd can have on teams.
Of the 18 games thus far, 14 have included a 'home side'. I include Turkey here, who played in Baku. Still, owing to their special relationship with Azerbaijan, the tie was essentially a home fixture with even Recep Erdogan in attendance.
Of these 14 matches, there has been a fairly even split of 6 home victories and 7 away. Although, one of those games, possibly even two, has a gigantic asterisk next to it.
Home victories
Italy
Italy 3 - 0 Turkey, Stadio Olimpico, 25% full
Italy 3 - 0 Switzerland, Stadio Olimpico, 25% full
Even on neutral grounds, the Italians would have been fancied to beat both these teams. Playing at home may well have given the Azzurri an extra boost, especially after the rousing opening ceremony on opening night.
England
England 1 - 0 Croatia, Wembley Stadium, 25% full
It was a tight game, but Croatia offered little. This one again went pretty much as expected. The hosts could even have won by a greater margin on another day.
Netherlands
Netherlands 3 - 2 Ukraine, Amsterdam Arena, 25% full
Netherlands 2 - 0 Austria, Amsterdam Arena, 25% full
Another example of games going as expected. There may be a case for the decisive impact of the home support in their winner against Ukraine. Still, victory over Austria was never in doubt, no matter where they played.
Russia
Russia 1 - 0 Finland, Krestovsky Stadium, 50% full
Another close encounter. The Fins had a very tight offside go against them, but Russia were the better side and deserved victory.
Away Victories
Finland
Denmark 0 - 1 Finland, Parken Stadium, 25% full
Absolutely no conclusions can be drawn from this fixture, maybe not even from Denmark's other home game. With both sets of players deeply affected by what they had witnessed and more than justified in not taking to the field, the result was largely an afterthought.
Belgium
Russia 0 - 3 Belgium, Krestovsky Stadium, 50% full
Denmark 1 - 2 Belgium, Parken Stadium, 60% full
Belgium were simply the better side on both occasions. The early stages of their encounter against Denmark, imbued with much more than the average home fervour, showed the impact of the crowd, but the Belgians had too much quality.
Czech Republic
Scotland 0 - 2 Czech Republic, Hampden Park, 25% full
This game was a lot tighter than the scoreline suggests. Schick's wonder goal kicked the stuffing out of Scotland in a good spell for the home team. I think home advantage played its part in raising the level of the Scots, but their inferior quality upfront ultimately told.
Wales
Turkey 0 - 2 Wales, Baku Olympic Stadium, 50% full
Clearly the 'home' advantage did nothing for Turkey in what is proving to be a very disappointing tournament. But, again, it was clear that the surroundings played their part, which is all the more credit to Wales for triumphing in hostile surroundings.
France
Germany 0 - 1 France, Allianz Arena, 20% full
France only won by one goal, but the scoreline could easily have matched the number of times they beat Neuer in the Germany goal on another day. Difficult to make a case for the Munich crowd having any bearing on the tie. France are just better.
Portugal
Hungary 0 - 3 Portugal, Frenc Puskas Stadium, 100% full
The scoreline flattered the defending champions. The impact of a capacity crowd in Budapest was clear for all to see. The home team frustrated their more illustrious guests before conceding three times in the final 8 minutes of play.
I think it's fair to say that the results are inconclusive. It's always been a mystery the extent to which a team is affected by raucous support. Does the home side gain an extra 1%? Or does the away team shrink and adopt a more cautious stance? I think that's where the answer to the question lies, the 1%.
Most of the results thus far have gone as expected. Still, as with any elite sport, marginal gains are where winning teams and individuals prevail. It's foolish to overlook the outlier performances of host nations in previous tournaments; I'm looking at you, Russia, South Korea, and England. I suspect we'll see some more impactful differences when we get to the competition's latter stages. It'll be interesting to see how this accepted law of playing at home is affected by less than capacity crowds. All this to say, with the three Lions playing every game at Wembley - if everything goes to plan - Modric may prove correct in asserting England have an 'unfair' advantage.